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MessagePosté le: Sam 21 Mai - 00:20 (2016)    Sujet du message: Risk Intelligence How To Live With Uncertainty Répondre en citant




Risk Intelligence How To Live With Uncertainty > urlin.us/2btxj





Risk,management,Business,intelligence,He,,,suggests,,,that,,,one,,,way,,,to,,,raise,,,our,,,risk,,,intelligence,,,is,,,to,,,carefully,,,assess,,,the,,,limits,,,of,,,what,,,we,,,know,,,,assess,,,the,,,reliability,,,of,,,sources,,,,critically,,,evaluate,,,the,,,accuracy,,,of,,,our,,,estimates,,,and,,,learn,,,the,,,rudiments,,,of,,,probability,,,theoryRisk,Intelligence,is,a,traveller's,guide,to,the,twilight,zone,of,probabilities,and,speculationWrite,your,own,online,reviewThe,,rest,,of,,Risk,,Intelligence,,goes,,on,,to,,explore,,everything,,from,,the,,mechanisms,,of,,climate,,change,,misinformation,,to,,how,,the,,CSI,,effect,,makes,,jurors,,in,,real-life,,criminal,,trials,,hold,,evidence,,to,,the,,impossible,,standards,,of,,fictionalized,,TV,,dramasThough,some,of,our,difficulty,in,dealing,with,risk,can,be,attributed,to,the,tendency,of,our,brain,to,overestimate,dramatic,events,and,indulge,in,wishful,thinking,,as,well,as,our,susceptibility,to,after-the-fact,confirmation,bias,,these,tendencies,can,be,overcomeEvans,attributes,this,unwillingness,to,deal,with,uncertainty,to,"our,reluctance,to,gauge,the,limits,of,what,we,know",and,make,judgments,accordinglyHe,,,received,,,a,,,PhD,,,in,,,Philosophy,,,from,,,the,,,London,,,School,,,of,,,Economics,,,in,,,2000,,,,and,,,has,,,held,,,academic,,,appointments,,,at,,,King's,,,College,,,London,,,,the,,,University,,,of,,,Bath,,,,the,,,University,,,of,,,the,,,West,,,of,,,England,,,,and,,,University,,,College,,,CorkRobert,,,Poole,,,,,,,a,,,member,,,of,,,the,,,National,,,Aviation,,,Studies,,,Advisory,,,Panel,,,in,,,the,,,Government,,,Accountability,,,Office,,,,has,,,calculated,,,that,,,the,,,additional,,,time,,,spent,,,waiting,,,at,,,airports,,,since,,,9/11,,,has,,,cost,,,the,,,nation,,,about,,,$8,,,billion,,,a,,,yearBeing,a,scientist,requires,having,faith,in,uncertainty,,asserted,Stuart,Firestein,in,his,fantastic,book,on,the,value,of,ignorance[6],He,has,argued,that,risk,intelligence,is,essential,to,survival,,success,,and,relevance,of,companies,and,investors,in,the,post-crisis,worldIndeed,,it,is,intelligence,tip-offs,,not,airport,checkpoints,,that,have,foiled,the,vast,majority,of,attempted,attacks,on,aircraftPublished,in,the,US,by,Free,Press,on,17,April,2012:,click,here,to,buy,on,Amazon.com,click,here,to,buy,on,Barnes,and,Noble,click,here,to,buy,on,IndieBound,click,here,to,buy,on,iTunes,Introducing,a,wealth,of,fascinating,research,findings,and,using,a,wide,range,of,real-life,examples--from,the,brilliant,risk,assessment,skills,of,horse,race,handicappers,to,the,tragically,flawed,evaluations,of,risk,that,caused,the,financial,crisis--Evans,reveals,the,common,errors,in,our,thinking,that,undermine,our,risk,intelligenceIt,comes,out,on,Sundays,and,offers,the,week's,best,articlesThat,,,helps,,,support,,,Brain,,,Pickings,,,by,,,offsetting,,,a,,,fraction,,,of,,,what,,,it,,,takes,,,to,,,maintain,,,the,,,site,,,,and,,,is,,,very,,,much,,,appreciated,,,donating,=,loving,Bringing,you,(ad-free),Brain,Pickings,takes,hundreds,of,hours,each,monthView,,,Full,,,Version,,,of,,,PW.com,,,,,,BEST,,,BOOKS,,,AUTHORS,,,PUBLISHERS,,,WEEKLY,,,,,,Risk,,,Intelligence:,,,How,,,to,,,Live,,,with,,,Uncertainty,,,Dylan,,,Evans^,Apgar,,David,(2006)The,,,illusion,,,of,,,control,,,may,,,be,,,another,,,factor;,,,when,,,we,,,do,,,something,,,active,,,such,,,as,,,taking,,,our,,,shoes,,,off,,,,we,,,tend,,,to,,,feel,,,more,,,in,,,control,,,of,,,the,,,situation,,,,but,,,when,,,we,,,sit,,,back,,,and,,,let,,,others,,,(such,,,as,,,spies,,,gathering,,,intelligence),,,do,,,all,,,the,,,work,,,,we,,,feel,,,passive,,,and,,,impotentCustomer,,,ReviewsThere,,,is,,,a,,,special,,,kind,,,of,,,intelligence,,,for,,,dealing,,,with,,,risk,,,and,,,uncertaintyp.204^,,Fischhoff,,,Baruch,,(1984)Risk,,,Intelligence,,,is,,,a,,,concept,,,that,,,generally,,,means,,,beyond,,,Risk,,,management,,,,though,,,it,,,has,,,been,,,used,,,different,,,ways,,,by,,,different,,,writersHoboken,,,New,,Jersey:,,John,,Wiley,,&,,Sons,,,IncThere,is,a,special,kind,of,intelligence,for,dealing,with,risk,and,uncertaintyISBN1-59139-954-8Schneier,may,be,right,that,many,of,the,new,airport,security,procedures,are,purely,theatrical,,but,that,begs,the,question,as,to,why,they,are,such,good,theaterSurviving,,and,,thriving,,in,,uncertainty:,,creating,,the,,risk,,intelligent,,enterpriseAfter,,studying,,the,,techniques,,detailed,,here,,,readers,,of,,this,,valuable,,manual,,will,,be,,better,,able,,to,,gauge,,the,,limits,,of,,[their],,own,,knowledge,,and,,increase,,their,,ability,,to,,make,,fact-based,,decisionsMark,,,Janklow,,&,,NesbitEvans,outlines,why,many,are,so,bad,at,estimating,probabilitieswith,sometimes,devastating,consequences,,such,as,in,the,financial,crisis,and,9/11and,how,one,can,become,better,at,it,,since,its,a,vital,skill,for,gaining,success,in,lifeGrowth:,,,The,,,Two,,,Basic,,,Mindsets,,,That,,,Shape,,,Our,,,LivesFamous,,,Advice,,,on,,,Writing:,,,The,,,Collected,,,Wisdom,,,of,,,Great,,,WritersFriedrich,,,Nietzsche,,,on,,,Why,,,a,,,Fulfilling,,,Life,,,Requires,,,Embracing,,,Rather,,,than,,,Running,,,from,,,DifficultyCreative,,,Courage,,,for,,,Young,,,Hearts:,,,15,,,Emboldening,,,Picture,,,Books,,,Celebrating,,,the,,,Lives,,,of,,,Great,,,Artists,,,,Writers,,,,and,,,ScientistsMary,,,Oliver,,,on,,,What,,,Attention,,,Really,,,Means,,,and,,,Her,,,Moving,,,Elegy,,,for,,,Her,,,Soul,,,MateHow,,,to,,,Love:,,,Legendary,,,Zen,,,Buddhist,,,Teacher,,,Thich,,,Nhat,,,Hanh,,,on,,,Mastering,,,the,,,Art,,,of,,,InterbeingA,,,Rap,,,on,,,Race:,,,Margaret,,,Mead,,,and,,,James,,,Baldwins,,,Rare,,,Conversation,,,on,,,Forgiveness,,,and,,,the,,,Difference,,,Between,,,Guilt,,,and,,,ResponsibilityBertrand,,,Russell,,,on,,,Immortality,,,,Why,,,Religion,,,Exists,,,,and,,,What,,,The,,,Good,,,Life,,,Really,,,MeansThe,,,Science,,,of,,,Stress,,,and,,,How,,,Our,,,Emotions,,,Affect,,,Our,,,Susceptibility,,,to,,,Burnout,,,and,,,Diseasesee,,,moreRelated,,,ReadsStop,,,Overplanning:,,,The,,,Psychology,,,of,,,Why,,,Excessive,,,Goal-Setting,,,Limits,,,Our,,,Happiness,,,and,,,SuccessFixed,,,vsPublication,,,Date:,,,17,,,April,,,2012,,,(US);,,,1,,,July,,,2012,,,(Uk),,, 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